iPhone 16 to decline 15% due to unchanged design and changing market paradigm: Kuo

Analyst Ming-Chi Kuo said that Apple could see a massive decline in the new iPhone 16 series due to minimalistic changes compared to the iPhone 15.

Kuo said that Apple has lowered its 2024 orders for semiconductor components to 200 million units, reduced by 15% year over year. This could lead to a significant decline in comparison to a year earlier.

In terms of numbers, the current generation of the iPhone 15 series may decline up to 10% in the first half of 2024. iPhone 16 shipments will also tap off up to 15% in the second half of 2024.

The analyst suggested that this year’s iPhone may not come with any major changes compared to the previous iPhone model. That might be the biggest reason for slow iPhone 16 consumption.

The company’s structural changes will also impose challenges in the growth route in 2024.

Competition in the market is another aspect that would cost a big chunk of sales to the Cupertino-based tech firm. The rising use of generative artificial intelligence (AI) in new smartphones such as Samsung’s Galaxy S24 series collecting massive attention from customers.

It’s expected that the Galaxy S24 series is likely to expand the market by 5-10% in 2024, while Apple scale down iPhone 15 for the first half of 2024.

A potential sales decline in China is also casting a bleak shadow for next-generation iPhones. Meanwhile, the return of Chinese phone maker Huawei and interest in foldables taking away consumers from Apple’s domain.

The analyst predicted that Apple will require changes in the iPhone launch strategy and adopt new AI technologies to regain sales momentum, which doesn’t seem near until 2025.

(source – Medium)